Welcome to the first CFB Parlay Calculator Parlays of the Week
Good morning. Every Saturday during the college football season, we'll send you ten parlays for the day's games, built from the numbers behind College Football Charts and priced at DraftKings and FanDuel. Tap any ticket and it opens in the calculator, ready to bet or tweak.
How they're built: every game runs through three power ratings built on box scores and advanced stats. We roll them into a consensus and check it against injuries and weather. For each game we price the spread, the moneyline and the total, toss any bet where the price is worse than its chance of hitting, and keep the one most likely to cash. Then we stack them: chalk at the top, moonshot at the bottom.
Today: the safe one is Nebraska, Georgia State and Illinois to win, +258, and it hits about 1 in 3.5 times. The dumb one is ten legs that pay $3,367 on $10, about 1 in 221. You're going to bet it anyway. So are we.
The record starts now. Every parlay in this email gets graded, and next Saturday we tell you how many hit and what $10 on each did, wins and losses.
Every leg shows its chance of hitting at DraftKings' number, the same one on the ticket. Nothing here is a lock. Do with that what you will.
1. Chalk
+258 at DraftKings ($10 pays $35.82), +254 at FanDuel ($35.45). Hits about 1 in 3.5.
The three likeliest wins the numbers back today.
Illinois to win, Illinois at Maryland, 12 PM ET, FS1. DraftKings −135, FanDuel −137. 59% to hit. The numbers have Illinois by 6.8.
Nebraska to win, Washington at Nebraska, 8 PM ET, BTN. DraftKings −298, FanDuel −310. 75% to hit. The numbers favor Nebraska.
Georgia State to win, Coastal Carolina at Georgia State, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. DraftKings −185, FanDuel −182. 65% to hit.
Bet it or tweak it:
2. Top 25
+1,302 at DraftKings ($10 pays $140.24), +1,282 at FanDuel ($138.29). Hits about 1 in 12.
Georgia −12.5, Florida at Georgia, 3:30 PM ET, ABC. DraftKings −12.5 (−108), FanDuel −11.5 (−110). 53% to hit. Georgia by 16.5. Take FanDuel's extra point.
BYU −16.5, Arizona State at BYU, 3:30 PM ET, Fox. DraftKings −16.5 (−108), FanDuel −16.5 (−110). 53% to hit. BYU by 19.8.
Over 56.5, Utah at Cincinnati, 3:45 PM ET, ESPN. DraftKings 56.5 (−110), FanDuel 56.5 (−105). 55% to hit. Projected total 65.0.
Over 48.5, Virginia at Wake Forest, 3:45 PM ET, ESPN2. DraftKings 48.5 (−102), FanDuel 48.5 (−106). 52% to hit. Projected total 54.1.
Bet it or tweak it:
3. Service academies
+629 at DraftKings ($10 pays $73.00), +585 at FanDuel ($68.52). Hits about 1 in 6.5.
No real weather today, so slot 3 goes to the academies: Navy, Air Force and Army all play.
Navy +30.5, Notre Dame at Navy, 12 PM ET, ABC. DraftKings +30.5 (−110), FanDuel +30.5 (−105). 55% to hit. The numbers have Notre Dame by 25.
Air Force −1.5, UConn at Air Force, 3 PM ET, MW+. DraftKings −1.5 (+102), FanDuel +1.5 (−114). 52% to hit. FanDuel has Air Force getting 1.5 instead.
Over 59.5, Army at Memphis, 8 PM ET, ESPNU. DraftKings 59.5 (−112), FanDuel 59.5 (−115). 55% to hit. Projected total 66.9.
Bet it or tweak it:
4. Dogs only
+1,190 at DraftKings ($10 pays $129.01), +1,272 at FanDuel ($137.25). Hits about 1 in 11.
Mississippi State +20.5, Mississippi State at Texas, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN. DraftKings +20.5 (−115), FanDuel +20.5 (−114). 55% to hit. Texas by 15.4. Miss. State QB Kamario Taylor is out.
Arizona +3.5, Arizona at Texas Tech, 12 PM ET, ESPN. DraftKings +3.5 (−108), FanDuel +3.5 (−105). 53% to hit. The numbers call it a coin flip, and Arizona gets 3.5.
Kansas State +3, Kansas State at Colorado, 2 PM ET, TNT. DraftKings +3 (−112), FanDuel +2.5 (−104). 58% to hit. The numbers have K-State winning outright.
Nevada +22.5, Nevada at UCLA, 4:15 PM ET, BTN. DraftKings +22.5 (−112), FanDuel +22.5 (−110). 54% to hit. UCLA by 18.7, and UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava is out.
Bet it or tweak it:
5. Group of 6
+1,242 at DraftKings ($10 pays $134.21), +1,217 at FanDuel ($131.77). Hits about 1 in 11.
New Mexico −14.5, New Mexico at San José State, 4 PM ET, MW+. DraftKings −14.5 (−115), FanDuel −14.5 (−110). 54% to hit. New Mexico by 17.9.
North Dakota State −24.5, UTEP at North Dakota State, 3:30 PM ET, MW+. DraftKings −24.5 (−105), FanDuel −24.5 (−108). 57% to hit. NDSU by 34.5. UTEP is 0–6 against the spread.
Over 55.5, Southern Miss at UL Monroe, 3:30 PM ET, ESPN+. DraftKings 55.5 (−110), FanDuel 54.5 (−114). 53% to hit. Projected total 59.7.
Over 58.5, Louisiana Tech at South Alabama, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. DraftKings 58.5 (−108), FanDuel 58.5 (−110). 56% to hit. Projected total 69.6.
Bet it or tweak it:
6. Overs
+1,258 at DraftKings ($10 pays $135.88), +1,184 at FanDuel ($128.49). Hits about 1 in 12.
Over 47.5, Northwestern at Oregon, 3:30 PM ET, Peacock. DraftKings 47.5 (−110), FanDuel 47.5 (−106). 54% to hit. Projected total 53.2.
Over 54.5, Purdue at Penn State, 4:15 PM ET, BTN. DraftKings 54.5 (−108), FanDuel 54.5 (−115). 53% to hit. Projected total 60.7.
Over 45.5, Michigan at Rutgers, 12:30 PM ET, BTN. DraftKings 45.5 (−105), FanDuel 44.5 (−122). 53% to hit. Projected total 52.6.
Over 41.5, UAB at South Florida, 12 PM ET, ESPNU. DraftKings 41.5 (−112), FanDuel 42.5 (−106). 54% to hit. Projected total 48.2.
Bet it or tweak it:
7. Unders
+1,216 at DraftKings ($10 pays $131.66), +1,207 at FanDuel ($130.78). Hits about 1 in 12.
Under 58.5, SMU at Syracuse, 12 PM ET, ESPN2. DraftKings 58.5 (−115), FanDuel 58.5 (−112). 54% to hit. Projected total 52.7, and Syracuse QB Malachi Nelson is out.
Under 61.5, Colorado State at Utah State, 3:30 PM ET, USA Net. DraftKings 61.5 (−105), FanDuel 61.5 (−105). 53% to hit. Projected total 56.0.
Under 44.5, Bowling Green at Western Michigan, 12 PM ET, CBSSN. DraftKings 44.5 (−105), FanDuel 44.5 (−112). 51% to hit. Projected total 41.2.
Under 45.5, Florida International at Liberty, 3:30 PM ET, CBSSN. DraftKings 45.5 (−118), FanDuel 45.5 (−115). 55% to hit. Projected total 40.0.
Bet it or tweak it:
8. After dark
+590 at DraftKings ($10 pays $69.09), +613 at FanDuel ($71.38). Hits about 1 in 6.3.
Only two late games clear the bar, so this one reaches back to a 7 PM kickoff.
Over 63.5, Texas State at Boise State, 10 PM ET, The CW Network. DraftKings 63.5 (−115), FanDuel 63.5 (−110). 58% to hit. Projected total 75.6.
Under 47.5, Washington State at San Diego State, 7 PM ET, CBSSN. DraftKings 47.5 (−105), FanDuel 48.5 (−115). 52% to hit. Projected total 42.9, and SDSU QB Jayden Denegal is out.
UNLV −21.5, Northern Illinois at UNLV, 10:30 PM ET, CBSSN. DraftKings −21.5 (−112), FanDuel −22.5 (+100). 53% to hit. UNLV by 24.6. NIU is 1–5 against the spread.
Bet it or tweak it:
9. Long shot
+2,540 at DraftKings ($10 pays $264.08), +2,346 at FanDuel ($244.68). Hits about 1 in 20.
Six of the likeliest legs in this email, on one ticket.
Illinois to win: DraftKings −135, FanDuel −137. 59% to hit.
Nebraska to win: DraftKings −298, FanDuel −310. 75% to hit.
Texas State/Boise State over 63.5: DraftKings 63.5 (−115), FanDuel 63.5 (−110). 58% to hit.
Air Force −1.5: DraftKings −1.5 (+102), FanDuel +1.5 (−114). 52% to hit.
North Dakota State −24.5: DraftKings −24.5 (−105), FanDuel −24.5 (−108). 57% to hit.
Georgia State to win: DraftKings −185, FanDuel −182. 65% to hit.
Bet it or tweak it:
10. Moonshot
+33,565 at DraftKings ($10 pays $3,366.51), +33,191 at FanDuel ($3,329.11). Hits about 1 in 221.
One leg from each parlay above, plus two more. Put $10 on it and forget about it.
Georgia −12.5 (Top 25): DraftKings −12.5 (−108), FanDuel −11.5 (−110). 53% to hit.
Kansas State +3 (dogs only): DraftKings +3 (−112), FanDuel +2.5 (−104). 58% to hit.
Illinois to win: DraftKings −135, FanDuel −137. 59% to hit.
Nebraska to win (chalk): DraftKings −298, FanDuel −310. 75% to hit.
Texas State/Boise State over 63.5 (after dark): DraftKings 63.5 (−115), FanDuel 63.5 (−110). 58% to hit.
Air Force −1.5 (service academies): DraftKings −1.5 (+102), FanDuel +1.5 (−114). 52% to hit.
UAB/South Florida over 41.5 (overs): DraftKings 41.5 (−112), FanDuel 42.5 (−106). 54% to hit.
North Dakota State −24.5 (Group of 6): DraftKings −24.5 (−105), FanDuel −24.5 (−108). 57% to hit.
Georgia State to win: DraftKings −185, FanDuel −182. 65% to hit.
Florida International/Liberty under 45.5 (unders): DraftKings 45.5 (−118), FanDuel 45.5 (−115). 55% to hit.
Bet it or tweak it:
Who's out on games in this email: UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava. Miss. State QB Kamario Taylor. Syracuse QB Malachi Nelson. SDSU QB Jayden Denegal. K-State QB Avery Johnson. Georgia RB Chauncey Bowens. Notre Dame CB DJ McKinney.
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